Carbonzero

The Chinese government will announce its intention to cut it’s emissions intensity by 40-45% of 2005 in Copenhagen in December.

Assuming that China’s economy continues grow at 9-10% of GDP each year, that will mean that China’s emissions will more than double their 2005 emissions.

Though seemingly impressive, a reduction in emissions intensity will still mean a significant overall increase in China’s greenhouse gas emissions since the reductions are pegged per unit of GDP, rather than absolute reductions that industrialized countries will be agreeing to.

China, having already surpassed the United States as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, will with these targets be producing more than two times the emissions that the United States is producing today.

Under this emissions reduction structure there are only two ways China will be able to keep its emissions level:

1. Increase its intensity target to 75% of 2005 levels; or
2. Slow its economy to about 3% of GDP per year